The treshold normally before star trails become obvious is 30s. I had a similiar experience to this recently and I believe it was caused by using an IS lens on a tripod. As previously mentioned, the shake is horizontal, which would suggest to me that IS is compensating for vertical shake. The longer the lens, the more pronounced this will be. I used the timer as opposed to a cable release and also got horizontal shake. I could be wrong of course, as I didn’t used mirror lock up. It may be worthwhile to also experiment with different apertures as lenses will vary in the optimum aperture.